Approach of evaluation the effects from implementation the projects of construction new passenger maglev lines

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INTRODUCTION

Public passenger transportation service systems are formed at large cities and city agglomerations. Their specifics and individuality determined by a complex of factors, and their elements are different means of transport. The purpose of passenger transportation service systems operation is services improvement at the conditions of constant competition for volumes and routes. It causes changes in systems: changes in relationships between the elements and changes in structure. And, despite market entering barriers, systems can expand because of new modes of transport [1, 2].

The newest mode of passenger transportation is the transportation system based on magnetic levitation technology. The development of maglev transportation systems is actively progressing during last decades. Maglev transport implemented in different countries of the world and positively evaluated because its timeliness, economics practicality, social and other important effects [3, 4, 5].

Evaluation of effects from implementation of new passenger maglev lines should focus on detection of changes in quality of public passenger transportation service and anthropogenic impact on the environment [6, 7].

For the purpose of complex and objective evaluation of effects, caused by a construction of passenger maglev line, we researched the methodic, which focused on detection of changes in quality of public passenger transportation service and anthropogenic impact on the environment.

ANALYSIS

One of the key criteria for selection the transportation mode is its usability for passengers, which the methodic of evaluation of effects from the implementation of new passenger maglev lines measures using the integral indicator of customer appeal (IICA). IICA evaluates the place of a transportation mode at particular passenger route. It considers:

• Annual volume of passenger traffic;
• Frequency of time-table;
• Travelling time;
• Number of connections;
•  

IICA calculated, counting for value of its parameters, for all the route options of a traffic direction, including direct routes, indirect routes, including connections of different modes of transport.

It is important for IICA calculation to detect the borders of traffic direction, which limit the calculation. In case the methodic of evaluation of effects from the implementation of new passenger maglev lines suggested to consider new maglev lines, the borders are attraction zone of a new maglev line route. In addition, the methodic considers the line’s end stations and traffic attraction stations [8, 9].

For the purpose of further analysis we build the matrix of passenger traffic volumes and transportation services parameters for all alternative modes of passenger transportation, which implemented at considered direction (Table 1) [10].

 

Table 1. Example of passenger traffic volumes and transportation services parameters matrix by modes of transport used at a direction

№	Parameter	Modes of passenger transport
		Metro	Municipal bus	Commercial bus
1	Annual volume of passenger traffic, K pass	1 000	200	400
2	Frequency of time-table, min	1-3	20	10
3	Travelling time, min	20	45	35
4	Number of connections	0	1	0
5	Tariffs, RUR	45	40+40	50

 

An example of IICA calculation for all alternative modes of passenger transportation, which implemented at the considered direction, represented at Table 2. An example of comparison of annual passenger traffic volume and IICA, represented at Table 2, by modes of passenger transportation, which implemented at considered direction, shown at Fig. The picture illustrates the dependency of passenger traffic volume from IICA.

 

 Table 2. Example of IICA calculation for all alternative modes of passenger transportation used at a direction

№	Parameter	Mode of passenger transport
		Metro			Municipal bus			Commercial bus
		parameter volume	parameter value	customer satisfaction	parameter volume	parameter value	customer satisfaction	parameter volume	parameter value	customer satisfaction
1	Annual volume of passenger traffic, K pass	1000			200			400
2	Frequency of time-table, min	1-3	1	96.4	20	0.5	63.3	10	1	75.1
3	Travelling time, min	20	1	96.3	45	0.44	68.5	35	0.5714	75.7
4	Number of connections	0	1	100	1	0.5	100	0	1	100
5	Tariffs, RUR	45	1	74.7	80	0.56	67.9	50	0.9	67.6
	IICA	367			150			279

 

Fig. Example of comparison of annual passenger traffic volume and IICA for all alternative modes of passenger transportation used at a direction

 

Considering the fact that demand for a particular transportation mode tightly correlates with IICA volume in comparison with alternative travelling options, we can make some conclusions:

1. IICA of a new transportation mode at the considering direction should be not lower than IICA of alternative transportation modes if the implementation goal is not the attraction of considerable passenger traffic only but and operations profitability;
2. Maximization of IICA reached by optimization of key parameters for each of designing route and based on complex analysis of social researches and competitive advantages of existing modes of transportation.

If IICA of maglev transport reflects the objective advantages of its operation in comparison with alternative modes of transportation, then the practical advantages from its implementation could be evaluated with a use of direct and indirect (additive) effects.

The basis of direct effects calculation is quantitative evaluation of passenger migration to maglev transport. This requires, first of all, the defining of parameters of the line attraction zone: volume of passenger traffic at other modes of transport, volume of private car users, which can switch to a public transport in case of fulfillment of the requirements – changes in travelling time, number of connections, tariffs. The evaluation of passenger migration volume based on the results of social researches.

The size of geographical area of a line attraction zone for public transport passengers influenced by parameters of IICA – mainly costs and time. For a shaped attraction zone IICA calculated for all actual modes of transport, including maglev transport. The switch of passenger traffic to maglev transport comes proportionally to its IICA.

While considering private car users detection of the attraction zone depends on time parameter and comparative cost of travelling. Number of private car users, switching to maglev transport, calculated on the basis of number of passengers, who are prepared to switch to a public transport in case of improvement of travelling quality by time and cost parameters and car average load.

General effect for public transport passengers is improvement of the travelling comfort level. The effect appears as a result of transportation services supply growing, and it leads to decreasing the load of vehicles.

The effect evaluation accomplished on the basis of data on peak load of vehicles at existing public transportations services lines and calculation of passenger traffic migration between different modes of transportation.

For other modes of public transport the positive effect from passenger traffic migration is peak cut, which results in decreasing the demand in additional vehicles, which operates successfully at rush hours only.

The effect calculation accomplishes on the basis of defining the required amount of vehicles, counting for peak requirements after passenger traffic migration, and defined level of vehicles load at the level not higher than current – before passenger traffic migration.

A direct effect for road network is decrease of vehicles amount influenced by the reject of private transport passengers for maglev transport.

Effect evaluation accomplishes as a ratio of private cars passengers migrating to public transport to average cars load in the region / city. The effect calculates for main push-pull migration routes only.

Additive effects appearing causes by rebalancing of public passenger transportation service system. The values of IICA components for other modes of transportation change as a result of maglev line implementation [11, 12].

Effects, caused by maglev line construction, affect passengers, other modes of transportation, traffic intensiveness at road network, which shown at Table 3.

 

Table 3. Content and characteristic of direct and indirect effects caused by maglev transport lines construction

№	Effect	Effect type	Calculation rule
1	Travelling comfort level change	direct	Average vehicle load at rush hour after maglev line implementation to the rate before
2	Rolling stock (vehicles) demand change	direct	Rolling stock at a route, including the reserve amount, after maglev line implementation to the rate before
3	Traffic at road network change	direct	Time to pass the narrowest place at a route after maglev line implementation to the rate before
4	Push-pull migration cost change	indirect	Unit cost of a tariff after maglev line implementation to the rate before
5	Non-productive national costs change	indirect	Unit cost of a trip (calculated in a connection to average salary) after maglev line implementation to the rate before

 

The results of calculations for each mode of transport are the following properties [13]:

• investments effectiveness indicators (NPV, IRR, payback period);
• integral indicator of customer appeal;
• cumulative effect.

The cumulative effect calculates as direct and indirect effect values intersection. Positive impact of new line to increase of public passenger transportation services reaches if the effect value is less than 1, negative – if greater than 1. In case of alternative options comparison, the most attractive option is the one, which has the lowest cumulative effect value.

The methodic integrity provides by calculation of the following additional effects (Table 4).

 

Table 4. Additional effects caused by maglev transport lines construction

№	Effect	Entity	Calculation rule
Transportation accessibility parameters improvement
1	Number of citizens provided with higher-speed urban public transport	Improvement of agglomeration transportation accessibility with higher-speed urban public transport	Population of line attraction zone
2	Connection with city agglomeration time decrease	Reduction of time, needed for a trip to city aglomeration	Difference between travelling time of existing transportation lines and maglev line
3	Capacity at the connection with city agglomeration change	Public transport passenger-seats supply increase, comfort level improvement	Difference between actual and potential (future) traffic capacity, changes in vehicle load at rush hour
Operation effects
1	Capacity	Public transport passenger-seats supply	Calculated parameter
2	Dotation amount	Dotation amount on compensation of losses from tariffs regulation	Difference between discounted (subsided) tariff and base tariff, multiplied to discounted passengers traffic forecast
3	Incidents decrease	Incidents decrease cause by traffic decline	Multiply of incidents on 1000 vehicles and decline of vehicles
Ecological effect
1	СО2 emission reduction	СО2 emission reduction caused by: - decline of car run because of passenger migration; - decrease of rolling stock	Multiply of СО2 emission standard value for different vehicles, length of car and bus routes, volume of car and bus use decline
2	Other pollution reduction (dust, heavy metals), acoustic pollution reduction	Emission reduction caused by: - decline of car run because of passenger migration; - decrease of rolling stock	Multiply of emission standard value for different vehicles, length of car and bus routes, volume of car and bus use decline

 

The assembly of descried effects allows to evaluate the advantages of new mode of transportation implementation to the system of public passenger transportation services at particular route objectively, which creates conditions for the use of the developed methodic in practice [14, 15].

CONCLUSION

The developed approach of evaluation the effects from implementation the projects of construction new passenger maglev lines is a universal tool for the evaluation of transportation projects implementation at particular routes (lines) effectiveness. The values, described at methodic, focused on maglev transport, therefore some aspects (like emission) ignored at calculations. The use of the methodic for different modes of transport requires the adaptation of values accordingly to the specifics of a transportation mode.

The methodic is recommended to use for the analysis of options of public passenger transportation services organization at mainlines.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The work has been completed with support of Scientific Educational and Engineering Cluster “Russian Maglev”.

The authors make it expressly clear that:

1. No conflict of interests has taken or may take place;
2. The present article does not contain any researches with people as the objects involved.

About the authors

Sergey A. Smirnov

Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University

Author for correspondence.
Email: noc-pgups@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2096-6967
SPIN-code: 3042-2910

Leading Researcher, Scientific and educational center for the innovative development of passenger rail transport

Russian Federation, 190031, St. Petersburg, Moskovsky pr., 9

Olga Yu. Smirnova

Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University

Email: noc-pgups@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2239-4384
SPIN-code: 9083-2984

Senior Researcher, Scientific and educational center for the innovative development of passenger rail transport

Russian Federation, 190031, St. Petersburg, Moskovsky pr., 9

Iana V. Sokolova

Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University

Email: nozpgups@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1230-1893
SPIN-code: 2817-4647
https://www.pgups.ru/sveden/employees/sokolova-yana-viktorovna

PhD in Economics, MBA; Deputy Head of the Center - Scientific and Educational Center for Innovative Development of Passenger Rail Transport, Head of the Laboratory "Innovative Development of Transport"

Russian Federation, 190031, St. Petersburg, Moskovsky pr., 9

References

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