Inflation, economic growth and money supply in a model of the shifting modes of reproduction with a continuous set of subsystems

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The model of switching modes of reproduction (SMR) is a heterodox model of endogenous growth in continuous time with a finite number of overlapping generations of capital and a monetary sector. A distinctive feature of the SMR model is that the long-run neutrality of money is violated in the model. The aim of this paper is to advance our understanding of the internal mechanisms of the SMR model, to qualitatively describe the macroeconomic effects present in the model, and to examine how monetary policy affects growth and inflation in it. The original SRM models do not allow closed-form solutions due to their complex structure and therefore, theoretical analysis based on the SRM models is limited to the study of particular numerical solutions. The article considers the author’s version of the SRM model with a continuous set of capital generations, for which, under the assumption that growth is stationary, an approximate explicit solution of the model is derived. It is shown that the increase of the money supply growth rate has a positive effect on inflation, while the effect on economic growth is non-monotonous. We analyse how economic growth and inflation depend on all the other exogenous variables and interpret the dependences explaining the economic mechanisms providing the outcomes. Three regimes of monetary policy are studied: the policy of maximizing growth, the policy of ensuring price stability, and the policy of a compromise between growth and inflation, which involves optimization by the ratio of gross inflation to gross output growth rates. We critically discuss the assumptions underlying the SRM model and the role of these assumptions in the violation of money neutrality in the model as well as the other results.

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作者简介

Е. Goryunov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Lomonosov Moscow State University; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

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Email: gorunov@iep.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow; Moscow; Moscow

参考

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2. Fig. 1. Relationship between long-term economic growth rates and inflation rate

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3. Fig. 2. Inflation and economic growth rates for three monetary policy options: growth maximization (A), -optimal policy (B) and price stability (C)

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