Estimates of possible changes of open water period in Russian exclusive economic zone in the Arctic in the 21 century

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Resumo

The rapid reduction of the Arctic Sea ice area in recent decades and the increase in the duration of ice-free navigation along the Northern Sea Route is one of the positive consequences of the global warming for Russia. At the same time, further retreat of the sea ice may lead to a prolonged seasonal open water period outside the Russian exclusive economic zone (REEZ) with significant economic and geopolitical risks. The paper provides estimates of possible changes of the sea ice concentration in the Arctic and the duration of open water period, including outside of REEZ in the 21st century, based on the CMIP6 climate model ensemble for moderate and aggressive scenarios of anthropogenic forcing. In particular, it is shown that already by the middle of the 21st century, the duration of ice-free navigation outside REEZ may exceed two and a half months.

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Sobre autores

V. Semenov

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: cherenkova@igras.ru

Academician of the RAS

Rússia, Moscow; Moscow

E. Cherenkova

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: cherenkova@igras.ru
Rússia, Moscow; Moscow

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2. 1. Concentration of sea ice in the Arctic in September (%), average for the periods 1991-2000 (a) and 2011-2020 (b) based on satellite data, as well as for the periods 2031-2040. (c, e) and 2051-2060. (d, e) according to the data of the ensemble of climate models under anthropogenic impact scenarios SSP245 (c, d) and SSP585 (e, e). The area at the North Pole with missing data on the ensemble of models is marked in gray. The borders of the EEZ are shown by red lines

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3. Fig. 2. The annual course (days) of IEP in the IEZR in the period 1981-2000. according to satellite data (bold curve in blue), as well as according to climate models (the average of the ensemble is shown by a bold curve in red)

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4. Fig. 3. Duration of the open water period (days) in the seas of the Russian Arctic according to the ensemble of models (a) and satellite data (b) on average for 1981-2000, according to the ensemble of models for 2031-2050 (c), 2051-2070 (e) and 2071-2090 (g), as well as its changes (days) on average for the periods: 2031-2050 (y), 2051-2070. (e) and 2071-2090 (h) relative to the period 1981-2000 for the anthropogenic impact scenario SSP585. The border of the IEZR is shown by a blue line

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5. Figure 4. Duration of the open water period (days), in the period 1981-2000 according to satellite data (blue curve) and in the period 1981-2080 according to the CMIP6 climate model ensemble (red curve, median value) according to scenarios SSP245 (a) and SSP585 (b). The interval between 25% and 75% percentiles of the model range

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