Vol 68, No 12 (2024)

In recent years, the development of the world economy and world finance has been characterized by such concepts as “deglobalization,” “regionalization,” and “politicization,” as climatic, structural, and geopolitical transformations have had a destructive impact on international financial relations that mediate the movement of international liquidity between countries. Regulatory impulses for the activation of certain mechanisms for stimulating international financial relations are set by the leading consultative forums of the emerging multipolar world, such as the G20 and the BRICS, as well as classical multilateral institutions - the IMF and the World Bank Group. Meanwhile, productive interaction between countries at G20 venues is extremely complicated by the lack of consensus on a wide range of pressing issues - from financing measures to mitigate the effects of climate change in developing countries to reforming the IMF and WTO. The BRICS countries are taking cautious steps towards implementing collective initiatives in the international financial sphere, which is connected with the still very serious dependence on the markets and financial infrastructure of the most developed Western countries and the fear of becoming dependent on a new reserve currency. In the Bretton Woods institutions, the G7 countries account for two-fifths of the votes, which effectively allows them to block any decisions taken in favor of developing countries. Currently, new mechanisms of international financial relations are being formed, based on the use of digital financial technologies to service foreign economic activity. At the same time, the United States, as the world leader in cryptocurrency mining, demonstrates a rather passive attitude towards the need to introduce its own digital currency, striving not so much to implement the latest digital financial technologies, but to maintain control over the establishment of global rules of the game in the financial markets. Thus, crisis of globalization could be attributed to the crisis in international financial relations due to the diversity of interests between the bloc of developed countries centered in the United States and the bloc of developing countries centered in China. With ever-increasing production volumes, the group of fastestgrowing countries continues to be discriminated against when it comes to the creation and distribution of international liquidity, which is invariably denominated predominantly in US domestic currency. In the context of global geopolitical confrontation, Russia’s role in international financial relations is also changing. Today, Russia’s access to the global banking system, opportunities to replenish international liquidity through swap lines of central banks, and the use of credit mechanisms of leading international financial organizations are blocked. Nevertheless, Russia continues to fulfill its financial obligations within the G20, the IMF, the World Bank Group and BRICS financial institutions. This position is becoming increasingly vulnerable and costly given the seizure of Russian foreign assets and threats of their confiscation, as well as the almost complete suspension of the inflow of foreign capital into the Russian Federation in the context of growing secondary sanctions, including those with respect to new international financial mechanisms.

From the first steps of implementing the policy of NATO expansion to the East - since the first half of the 1990s, official representatives of the alliance have constantly emphasized that these actions would not pose a threat to Russia. Moscow held the exact opposite opinion, but its concerns and objections were not taken into consideration. As military and political relations worsened and disagreements between Russia and the West/NATO grew, the military potential of the alliance was increasingly strengthened, coming close to the Russian borders. Traditionally neutral states - Finland and Sweden - also joined NATO. The beginning of the Special Military Operation (SMO) was used by Brussels as a long-term pretext for the beginning of the active militarization of Europe, the implementation of plans for even a larger-scale strengthening of the military and political structure of the Alliance. The leadership of the USA and NATO, having taken a course for escalation, however, show a certain “restraint”, trying to avoid a direct conflict with Russia. Brussels has repeatedly argued that NATO is not a party to the conflict in Ukraine and has set itself the task of preventing a direct clash Moscow has also repeatedly stated that it is not going to attack NATO countries. The United States and other Western states all the while do not allow Kyiv to use their weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory. Russia, on the other hand, is not completely destroying relations with the Alliance, as evidenced by the fact that Moscow is not going to withdraw from the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act. The article examines the current stage of relations between Russia and NATO, revealing its main features. The authors also provide a comprehensive examination of the content and nature of the new wave of militarization in Europe, using key European countries as examples.

The article addresses the problem of international regulation of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS). The author pays special attention to the problems of LAWS in the context of transatlantic security dialogue. The article contains an overview of theoretical publications which explain the ethical and legal factors that determine the relevance of international regulation of lethal autonomous weapons systems. The first section investigates the American approach on regulating LAWS, since the U.S. has pioneered lethal autonomous weapons regulation in military strategy. Besides, American researchers (such as John Boyd and the “OODA loop”) contributed to understanding the basics of autonomy in military affairs. The specifics of European countries in the field of regulation of artificial intelligence are presented in the second section of the article. European approach is implemented in various regional initiatives such as NATO, the European Union and other. The key platform on the basis of which international norms for regulating lethal autonomous systems are being developed is the United Nations. The third section of the article is devoted to analyzing the activities of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) established by the UN. GGE has not completed its work in the development of recommendations yet, however, in 2023, at the First UN Committee, some states initiated a resolution banning LAWS. According to a number of states, including Russia, this was done prematurely. In conclusion, the main possible directions for regulating lethal autonomous systems are presented. The author argues that one of the most serious concerns related to the use of LAWS is that such technologies are dispensable, and relatively cheap to recover. In addition to the lack of necessity to enlist additional manpower to operate autonomous weapons, such technologies may offer a significant strategic advantage and break the balance of military power.

The paper aims to analyze quantitatively the households’ final consumption expenditure model in China within the framework of the “dual circulation” policy and stimulation of domestic demand, which underlies the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan for 2021-2025. Model identification bases on assessing the impact of six determinants (current income, permanent income, wages, earnings of employees, domestic credit to private sector, and price level) on the households’ final consumption expenditure growth and its contribution to the country’s economic growth. The Granger causality test underlies the methodological approach of the research. The analysis found that the consumption pattern of Chinese households can be defined as driven equally by current income, debt and price levels. T o achieve the maximum consumption effect over 3-4 years, the following conditions must be ensured in the country: expanding access to credit should be followed by a general increase in per capita income, accompanied by lowering prices. Income policy has the dual effect of stimulating the country’s overall economic growth through both the demand channel and the investment and/or export components of growth. At the same time, the income elasticity of households’ final consumption expenditure remains low: the population’s continued high propensity to save is constraining the growth of current consumption and China’s transition to a consumption-led economic growth model as well. An alarming trend is the significant mutual influence of debt accumulation and the growth of households’ final consumption expenditure. Policies aimed at stimulating private consumption may contribute to worsening China’s debt problems in the medium and long term.

The paper is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of international competitiveness of the national economy of Poland in the 21st century. The study provides an assessment of Poland’s production potential as the most important benchmark in measuring competitiveness, as well as key macroeconomic indicators and the indicators of the economy’s inclusion in international production systems. It also aims at identifying the factors that determine Poland’s competitiveness in modern conditions and its place in global competitiveness rankings. The impact of demographic changes, including migration flows, on the country’s economy is analyzed. The methodology is based on a systematic analysis of statistical data, including demographic indicators, GDP, FDI, export and import dynamics, indicators of economic openness, international indices, and ratings, etc. The authors pay special attention to the economic changes in Poland after joining the European Union and the impact of global economic crises. Particular attention is paid to the growth of high-tech exports and the increase in domestic R&D spendings, emphasizing Poland’s aspiration for innovative development. The research results demonstrate Poland’s stable economic growth in the 21st century, its strengthening position in the world economy and successful adaptation to global challenges. In terms of global competitiveness and doing business in the period under study, Poland achieved significant progress due to the development of its production base, infrastructure, digital technologies, an effective labor market, and structural changes. Untapped potential and further socio-economic improvements in Poland are associated with the reduction of regulatory barriers, inflation, development of innovation and natural capital. The study concludes that Poland is successfully coping with the global challenges and international competition, strengthening its position as a result of sustainable economic growth, export diversification and effective integration into European and international economic processes.

The article addresses to the concept of multi-level governance (MLG) in the context of its evolution. The author captures the contemporary stage of its development and identifies an increase in the number of vertical levels of distribution of power from three to five. At the same time, it is proposed to describe MLG not in original two dimensions (levels of power and actors/stakeholders) but in three dimensions adding horizontal engagement of entities/regions. As a metaphor to this type of governance, a Rubik’s cube is proposed. It demonstrates the flexibility in (re)constructing networks and sets between all three dimensions. In the part of empirical study, two cases of practical MLG application are analyzed: from the European Union’s common fisheries policy and migration policy. The study is concentrated on institutional problems that are caused and/or exacerbated by MLG. The first case deals with the implementation of landing obligation (LO) in fishing industry, which has become compulsory in the EU but not observed in practice. The low motivation to comply with discard bans is compounded by the lack of assurance that fishing communities in other regions will follow common rules in pursuit of an intangible common good at the expense of their own benefit. It was discovered that decentralization, which is a feature of MLG, affects the level of compliance of actors from the regional and local levels. Furthermore, decentralization not only requires different amounts of effort from different actors, but also blurs the responsibility for implementation making it possible for stakeholders to sabotage decisions that are unfavorable for them. The second case refers to the migration crisis in Slovenia in 2015-2016. It has shown one of the main vulnerabilities of MLG: inconsistent coordination of efforts between levels of government, which, at best, leads to ineffectiveness and malperformance, and at worst, - to institutional fragmentation.

Another presidential election ended in the United States in November. 2024 has become one of the most politically turbulent periods in recent US history. In a time of 3.5 weeks, the country has witnessed: a split of the Democratic party, J. Biden’s refusal to participate in the elections only 3 months before the end of the race, an attempted murder of his opponent, first black woman nomination as a candidate for presidential race, her appointment bypassing primary elections i. e. the will of American electorate. In 2024, traditionalistic country, the United States, which is governed by 235-year-old Constitution, “violated” so many of its own rules, and created such long-term legal precedents that testify not only to the crisis of the US electoral system, but to transformations in its political systemin general. Their consequences will have an impact on the domestic policy of the country but also might raise the question of the United States’ global leadership. Methodological basis of this article includes systemic, historical and comparative approaches. They allow reader to consider internal political processes in the United States as a result of interaction among state institutions and society, under the influence of external factors, at a certain historical period. Comparative analysis allows to evaluate the dynamics of changes among this system key elements: political parties, President, Congress, electorate, as well as to assess how, and in what period of American history, external factors such as electoral cycle, public opinion polls, social outbursts, state of economy, traditions etc. influenced this balance. The author evaluates long-term consequences of the precedent when Democratic party appointed its new favorite, bypassing the voters. Based on the historically identified features of the modern American electoral system, raises the question if the party’s role in the electoral process has changed, or it is just a vision of changes. Finally, the author identifies possible areas for US electoral system reform.

The article examines the nationalization of voting in presidential elections in Sub-Saharan African countries in order to explain the emergence of national leaders with fairly homogeneous support of ethnic and regional groups of the electorate. The authors demonstrate the absence of a unidirectional process of nationalization, suggesting the continued fragility of African statehood under fundamental conditions of high ethno-linguistic fractionalization. The study confirms the crucial role of the incumbency effect, which strengthens support for a country’s leader when elected for a new term due to favorable institutional environment, but reveals other factors as well. One of them is the economic success of the incumbent, which contributes to the growing uniformity of his/her territorial support while economic failures have an opposite effect. The incumbent’s efficiency in ensuring public security and especially in forming elite coalitions across the different areas of the state might also be important. Given the initial shortage of national leaders in African countries due to the nature of their statehood, these reasons while coming into play under fairly democratic conditions contribute to the artificial “construction” of national leadership, which can be quite successful although temporary. At the same time, success of nationalization is more related to certain states (such as Ghana or Senegal) than to personalities, indicating that the structural characteristics of political systems are more important than the personal characteristics of agents. However, when the factors noted above do not work properly or pose threats to incumbents because of their failures, basic ethno-regional differences in Africa come back into full force.

Since the Soviet Union disintegration, the South Caucasus has become one of volatile parts in Eurasia. Although now it has found itself in the shadow of Ukraine, the events of 2020-2023 in Nagorno-Karabakh attracted political as well scholarly attention to this region. Today we observe the shaping of the new South Caucasus regional order, when some familiar alliances are experiencing crises, while others, on the contrary, are significantly strengthening. Against this background, the situation in Abkhazia looks, at first glance, static. However, it cannot be treated as a breakthrough in the conflict resolution. Until now, this partly recognized entity represents a set of contradictions and collisions. While the Georgian influence is not so serious, the growing impact of the Russian economic and military assistance has established a dilemma between the national self-determination and deepening integration with Russia. This situation of apparent stability opens up a good opportunity to study the conflict dynamics in Abkhazia through the prism of new approaches. The Abkhazian case is well-studied in the schorarly literature and therefore discovery of new research niches is a difficult task to implement. At the same time, the vast majority of scientific works are distributed across various disciplinary areas (history, ethnology and ethnopolitical science, international relations and international law) or focus on narrow chronological periods. Hence the formation of a research phenomenon, defined as the predominance of “detailing” over the “system”, empirics over generalizations and synthesis. This article proposes a new approach to considering the genesis and dynamics of conflicts in Abkhazia. In accordance with the theoretical approaches of P. Bourdieu, the author examines the Abkhaz case as a conflict field. It is studied as interaction, competition, and confrontation among various players from the mid-19th to the first quarter of the 21st centuries

Идентичность: личность, общество, политика. Новые контуры исследовательского поля. Отв. ред. И.С. СЕМЕНЕНКО. ИМЭМО РАН. Москва, Издательство “Весь мир”, 2023. 512 с.