Vol 68, No 11 (2024)

The article focuses on the analysis of factors that slow down the growth of international trade at the current stage of globalization. The latter is experiencing a crisis, but objective data do not indicate the end of globalization, but rather its slowdown following rapid growth. In its development, globalization overcomes many obstacles and faces various risks. At present, the threat of fragmentation of the world economy has become especially relevant. The factors causing the slowdown in the growth of globalization and world trade, for the most part, do not threaten the integrity of the world economy. The spread of regional trade agreements also does not negate the long-term efforts of the WTO aimed at trade liberalization, and in itself does not lead to the division of the world economy into separate blocks. Currently, the probability of the risk of fragmentation of the global economy is associated primarily with the geopolitical crisis. It is generally recognized that political confrontation, accompanied by restrictive measures regarding trade, brings economic losses to its participants. It can be assumed that ultimately objective economic laws will prevail and the scenario of the collapse of the global economy will not be realized. However, the high degree of uncertainty inherent in the political sphere does not allow us to confidently judge the prospects for an exacerbation or, on the contrary, mitigation of the crisis situation, and therefore the depth and duration of the impact of the political factor on economic policy and trade. After a pause, during which integration processes will unfold primarily at the level of world regions, globalization will resume its growth. Its pace will depend on a number of factors: normalization of the international political situation, overcoming trade contradictions, strengthening the system of global governance, dissemination of the principles of sustainable and responsible development, and many others. Development will acquire a more measured character, and the openness of economies and their interdependence will increase. In the long term, the main trends in the development of world trade that are currently observed will continue: a decrease in the share of goods and an increase in the share of services, an increase in the role of developing countries in trade in goods and developed countries in trade in services. The growth rates of world trade and GDP will remain at a relatively low level, while trade will grow somewhat faster than production. In the future, factors related to digitalization, robotics, artificial intelligence, additive technologies and climate change will become more noticeable. They will lead to shifts in the product structure of trade and the directions of the main commodity flows, but will not stop globalization, but will give it new features and directions of development.

The article examines the issue of applying space technologies for both military and peaceful purposes. The subject of the study includes specialized technical means designed for the exploration and utilization of the universe: spacecraft, satellites, orbital stations, launch vehicles, deep space communication, space engines, extraterrestrial and terrestrial auxiliary infrastructure objects, as well as procedures and special events. It has been proven that space technologies, including the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of satellite constellations, are currently crucial indicators of a nation’s capabilities, status, and global influence. The study analyzes the conceptual framework, the process of spreading space technologies, and the current trends in their development at the present stage. Drawing on data from Russian and foreign scientists and specialists, the author conducted a systematic analysis of modern types of space weapons - t hose located in space or deployed into Earth orbit and designed for combat in or from space - as well as an analysis of weapons designed to destroy or damage infrastructure in space. The author demonstrates that the increasing threats associated with the development and deployment of new military space technologies pose risks to global peace. In the context of a crisis in the relations between nuclear powers, the likelihood of a rapid escalation of a nuclear conflict increases due to the disruption of the Early Warning System satellites, which consequently raises the risk of accidental ballistic missile launches. Following this logic, it can be argued that the level of strategic stability is already declining today, with extremely negative consequences for all countries worldwide. This underscores the relevance of the research. Proposals have been formulated to prevent an arms race in space by discussing and adopting special binding norms of international law, which Russia has been advocating for many years in cooperation with other interested countries.

The article examines German and French strategies for military support of Kyiv starting from 2022. The analysis reveals two different models for military assistance, although gradually they became more similar. While France distributes money mainly by means of the European Peace Facility, Germany focuses more on bilateral support. Having not much military equipment in stock, Paris started delivering military equipment from the French army and later established a special fund to provide direct supplies to Ukraine. Berlin, at first, tended to avoid the delivery of heavy weapons, participation in “Ringtausch” and transfer of weapons from Bundeswehr stocks, but later bought more military equipment from German industry through state funds for security capacity building. Since 2024, both countries have been involved in capability coalitions for military support of Ukraine. France and Germany went through three stages of their policies: 1) restricted deliveries of European weapons to Ukraine (spring 2022); 2) a gradual increase in EU military supplies from stock, and the launch of production (second half of 2022 - e arly 2023); 3) increase of the military industry capacity (2023-2024). Both countries stimulate each other to support Ukraine, but their volumes of supplies and types of weapons do not always coincide. Both countries have to increase their military capacities to fulfill commitments for Ukraine, especially the production of the SAM system IRIS-T SLM and self-propelled howitzer CAESAR as well as the launch of new facilities for artillery shells. The authors conclude that Paris and Berlin have no joint projects and agreements for joint procurement. Thus, unlike other crises, the current conflict makes France and Germany act in parallel, but not together.

Since 2022, Russia has been developing under a major change in the foreign relations with other countries. Building an updated foreign economic strategy requires defining constructive ways to develop trade, scientific and technological relations with the outside world. The exhaustion of globalization potential and the growth of economic power of developing countries provide for a new model of the world economy. This involves its regionalization with the several centers of power emerging and acting as attractors and focal points for the existing and future commodity and financial flows. One center of power will be based on maintaining the high importance of the US economy, in favor of which a part of the income of developed countries will be redistributed. Another center of power will reflect the growing importance of large developing countries. The increasing conflict and protectionism within global economic relations are an inevitable component of the new model above. As of now, Russia's economic power is insufficient to become a full-fledged center of power. A positive development scenario is associated with intensive scientific and technological development and ensuring national technological achievements reaching the global level. This will provide odds for organic integration into a world-regional system with a friendly center of power and based on production and technological cooperation through effective technology exchange in the fields of energy, security, digital and additive technologies, construction and industrial engineering. Strengthening of the economic potential for external economic cooperation along with maintaining the country's defense capability are necessary for effective counteraction against the sanctions pressure. The solution is possible only if the high rates of economic growth are maintained accompanied with growing contribution of its drivers associated with the increasing efficiency of using primary resources. For the Russian economy, it is necessary to ensure at least a neutral impact of net exports on economic growth at the stage of structural and technological modernization. In the future, it is necessary to increase the positive contribution of exports to economic growth based on diversification of the range and geography of product deliveries.

This article examines the evolution of Egypt’s foreign policy towards Libya, highlighting the significance of the recent developments for understanding the shifts both in Cairo’s foreign strategy and regional military and political dynamics. The persistent Libyan conflict presents a formidable challenge to international and regional security. Egypt’s engagement in Libya is driven by its national security concerns, with special emphasis on the need to maintain Libyan territorial integrity, stabilize the country’s military-political landscape, and prevent Islamist resurgence. The article underscores the securitized nature of Egypt’s foreign policy, characterized by its readiness to employ force to ensure national interests. However, the author also points to Cairo’s strategic flexibility while balancing military and political measures, demonstrating willingness to adapt approaches without abandoning core objectives, and fostering dialogue. Actively working to stabilize Libya, Egypt aims to mitigate risks to its national interests, including the ones in the realm of economy. Cairo’s goals include support to Libya’s integrity as a state, reducing foreign interference, ensuring border security, enhancing Egyptian regional influence, and protecting its economic stakes. These efforts mirror the broader regional trend in the foreign policies of the key regional actors who - a midst the continuing (and even worsening) conflicts and destabilization in the Middle East - h ave started to seek de-escalation since the early 2020s, driven by the realization that costly military strategies require reassessment. Recognizing the importance of cooperation for the goals of economic prosperity and security, key regional actors increasingly value pragmatism and flexibility in their foreign policy approaches.

The article deals with the interaction between the Republic of India (RI) and the main Eurasian structures that operate in the space of the former Soviet Union - t he Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). With the emergence of a polycentric world order, marked, among other things, by the entry into the international arena of states that used to be categorized as developing, the study of their new role in the political, economic, and military-political spheres is of particular relevance. In this regard, identification of peculiarities of India’s interaction with the SCO and the EAEU is of specific importance in determining the role of India as a large state and an influential player both in the Asian region and in the world. Various aspects of India’s foreign policy activities at the historical and contemporary stages, including relations with Russia, have already received quite detailed coverage in Russian and foreign academic literature. Along with the consideration of individual aspects of India’s cooperation with the SCO, much attention is paid by IR and Oriental Studies researchers to India’s uneasy relations with China and Pakistan. At the same time, the problem of India’s participation in the implementation of Eurasian integration projects within the SCO and, moreover, the EAEU demands more attention. This has determined the aim of this article, which has several objectives: to analyze main historical stages of India’s interaction with Russia and the USSR; to study India’s foreign policy priorities in dealing with the SCO and EAEU; to reveal the influence of India, China, and Pakistan on the SCO activities and interstate relations within this organization; to determine India’s political-strategic, trade, and economic preferences in the Eurasian space. The relations with India, which is turning into new Asian giant, may in the future contribute to the establishment of both the SCO and the EAEU as influential world centers. The Indian participation may help in activating their internal and external potential, which will objectively contribute to a more dynamic formation of a new Greater Eurasia.